Football news: Arsenal’s 3-0 victory over Real Madrid in the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals has sent shockwaves through the football world.

Real Madrid: The Kings of Comebacks

When it comes to the Champions League, Real Madrid is synonymous with breathtaking comebacks. With 14 titles to their name, the Spanish giants are not just a powerhouse but an emblem of resilience and unrelenting fight until the final whistle.

A 3-0 lead is typically a commanding advantage, but for Real Madrid, it’s far from game over. The history of the competition proves that with them, nothing is impossible.

Champions League Stats: An 8.5% Chance of Elimination Despite a Big Win

Statistics show that only 4 out of 47 teams that won by three or more goals in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie were eliminated in the second leg—a mere 8.5% chance. Yet, those rare instances are etched in football lore:

• Deportivo La Coruña vs. AC Milan (2004): Milan won 4-1 in the first leg but lost 4-0 in the return, crashing out 5-4 on aggregate.
• Barcelona vs. PSG (2017): Barcelona lost 4-0 in the first leg but stormed back with a 6-1 win to advance 6-5.
• Roma vs. Barcelona (2018): Roma lost 4-1 but won 3-0 to progress on away goals (a rule since abolished).
• Liverpool vs. Barcelona (2019): Trailing 3-0 from the first leg, Liverpool won 4-0 at Anfield.

These improbable turnarounds are a stark reminder: never underestimate Real Madrid in the Champions League.

Arsenal’s Reasons for Optimism

Arsenal, however, hold the upper hand. Their 3-0 triumph marks the 12th time an English team has won by three goals in a Champions League first leg, and in the previous 11 instances, the English side advanced.

Data from the first leg highlights Arsenal’s dominance:

• They covered 13km more than Real Madrid, whose total distance was around 100km.
• Arteta’s players outshone their opponents in fitness, pressing, and ball possession.

If Arsenal maintain this level of performance in the second leg, a semifinal spot is well within reach.

Real Madrid’s Champions League DNA

The most daunting aspect of Real Madrid isn’t their current form but their battle-hardened mentality and knack for resurgence. Recent years have seen them overcome deficits against top teams:

• PSG (2022): Down 1-0 in the first leg, they won 3-1 at the Bernabéu.
• Man City (2022): Trailing 4-3 from the first leg, they won 3-1 in extra time at home.
• Leipzig (2024): After a 1-0 first-leg loss, they advanced with grit.

A three-goal gap is not insurmountable if Real score early. An early goal could pile pressure on Arsenal, a team relatively inexperienced in Champions League knockout stages.

Arsenal’s 3-0 lead puts them on the cusp of the semifinals, but the second leg awaits at the Bernabéu—where Real Madrid’s pedigree shines brightest. If Carlo Ancelotti’s men strike first, the tie could flip dramatically.

With Champions League history and Real’s flair for miraculous comebacks in mind, Arsenal must stay razor-focused. Against Real Madrid, “safe” is a word that doesn’t exist.