The analytics platform Opta has released its latest predictions for the final standings of the 2024/25 Premier League season, offering insights into which team is most likely to lift the trophy.
As the Premier League heads into its final stretch with 27 rounds completed, Liverpool appears to be in the strongest position to claim the title, having maintained an exceptional level of performance throughout the season. This dominance has been statistically confirmed by Opta’s latest simulation data.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, which ran 10,000 different simulations, Liverpool now holds a 98.8% chance of winning the Premier League. This staggering statistic follows their emphatic victory over Newcastle in Round 27, which allowed them to widen their lead over Arsenal—who managed only a draw against Nottingham Forest—to 13 points.
Meanwhile, Arsenal, currently in second place, has a slim 1.1% chance of winning the title. However, Opta predicts that the Gunners are highly likely (88.5%) to finish the season in second place. Defending champions Manchester City, after an underwhelming season, are no longer considered contenders for retaining their crown.
Perhaps the most surprising story of the season is Nottingham Forest, a club that barely avoided relegation last year. Under the guidance of head coach Nuno Espírito Santo, the team has defied expectations and now sits third in the league, ahead of giants like Manchester City and Chelsea. Opta’s model suggests that Nottingham Forest has a 22.7% chance of securing a Champions League spot for next season, which would mark their first return to Europe’s elite competition in 42 years.
Liverpool’s remarkable resurgence this season has been fueled by the tactical brilliance of new head coach Arne Slot. The Dutchman has transformed the Reds into an almost invincible force, with dominant performances across both the Premier League and the Champions League.
In addition to their league dominance, Liverpool has already booked a spot in the Carabao Cup final and advanced to the Champions League Round of 16. According to Opta, the club has a 12.4% chance of completing a treble—winning the Premier League, Carabao Cup, and Champions League in the same season. However, despite these projections, the unpredictability of football means that any slip-ups in the coming matches could change the course of the season.
Up next, Liverpool faces a tough away fixture against Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie. This match will be a crucial test for Arne Slot’s men as they continue their quest for silverware on multiple fronts.